“We Did Consider a Pause” – Jay Money

Markets were the most uncertain about today’s FOMC meeting in 30 years. Three members dissented and voted for a hike: Logan, Hammock, and Kashkari. This was the first time in 10 years that there were three dissents in the same direction.

This is the most uncertain I’ve been about a Fed meeting in a long time. Fed signaling has been very intentional for 20 years and market probability of 60% had become the number to watch. Once odds exceeded 60%, the Fed would speak up before the meeting if they disagreed.