Tightening Cycles: When Will the Feds Start to Cut?
November 9, 2022 If there’s one thing that’s certain, we live in a world that’s uncertain. While nobody knows for sure how long the current tightening cycle will last, history tells us they generally start and end relatively quickly.
Over the last four tightening cycles, the time between the first hike and first cut averaged 2.2 years, and never exceeded 3.2 years.
How about the time between the last hike and first cut?
Over the same four tightening cycles, the average time was 8.7 months and never exceeded 14.6 months. In other words, if the Fed levels off around Q2 2023, on average, we will see the first cut by early 2024.
What happens when the Fed starts to cut and what should you be thinking about today?
Two words – Pensford Webinar
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