The Pensford Letter
Weekly market commentary from JP Conklin on rates, the Fed, and what it all means for commercial real estate borrowers.
50 for 50
October 12, 2026 I turned 50 last week. I remember thinking 30 was a big number, but 50 just hits different. I am, without question, on the back 9 now. There is an end game. The end is nigh…
Make It Stop!
October 05, 2026 In the two weeks since the Fed hiked, inflation has come in cooler than expected and jobs have come in weaker than expected. Man, those hikes sure do work fast…
GDP, Inflation, and Jobs Oh My!
September 28, 2026 Buckle up, we’ve got a big week and I’m not just talking Birds Bears tonight. Core PCE and jobs and GDP…by 9am Friday, we’ll know if the Fed is hiking in October.
Fed Rate Hike: When All You Have is a Hammer...
September 16, 2026 It’s been 1,148 days since the last FOMC rate hike. You remember that day because Barbenheimer was storming movie theaters. Today, the FOMC unanimously voted for a 25bps hike. In response, oil is already heading right back to $60/barrel…
Top 10 Reasons to Hike This Week
September 14, 2026 Odds of a hike hit 90% following the as expected inflation report. There has never been a time when odds were that high and the Fed failed to deliver.
The Jay$ vs Warsh Showdown
September 08, 2026 Welp, that was a very good labor report. Good news for most Americans…maybe less so for those poor bastards in the real estate game. Thank goodness I’m not one of those…
WTF Was Bessent Thinking?
August 31, 2026 Warsh was as expected – hawkish. This guy cares about inflation as much as I care about the Eagles. But I also think he used the word “hike” 3x in his opening remarks very intentionally.
Inflation? What Inflation?
August 17, 2026 This feels like an oddly personal attack… And as I like to say, “Never take your interest rate advice from people that make outlandish claims just to get on CNBC.”
Jobs Report: The Good, the Bad, and Lots of the Ugly
August 10, 2026 Friday’s jobs report was pretty brutal. I expended considerable energy looking for something positive to write in this month’s the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Like the Cowboys come playoff time, it was much easier to find the Bad and the Ugly.