The Pensford Letter
Weekly market commentary from JP Conklin on rates, the Fed, and what it all means for commercial real estate borrowers.
Jobs Report: The Good, the Bad, and Lots of the Ugly
August 10, 2026 Friday’s jobs report was pretty brutal. I expended considerable energy looking for something positive to write in this month’s the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Like the Cowboys come playoff time, it was much easier to find the Bad and the Ugly.
FOMC: Does Warsh Want to Change the Inflation Target?
July 29, 2026 Markets were the most uncertain about today’s FOMC meeting in 30 years. Three members dissented and voted for a hike: Logan, Hammock, and Kashkari. This was the first time in 10 years that there were three dissents in the same direction.
The Decision™
July 27, 2026 This is the most uncertain I’ve been about a Fed meeting in a long time. Fed signaling has been very intentional for 20 years and market probability of 60% had become the number to watch. Once odds exceeded 60%, the Fed would speak up before the meeting if they disagreed.
Monetarism for Dummies
July 20, 2026 We all know who said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” And that’s because we all have that know-it-all friend that’s insufferable at parties.
Big CPI Report Tuesday
July 13, 2026 Headline CPI is expected to fall from 4.2% to 3.8%, while the m/m reading is expected to fall from 0.5% to -0.1% (yes, negative 0.1%).
The Real Unemployment Rate Jumped to 4.6%
July 06, 2026 The only thing that matters from Thursday’s job report was that over 700k people gave up looking for work. Had those 700k people kept looking for work, the unemployment rate would have been 4.6%, not 4.2%. Why is no one talking about this?! Can you imagine the market reaction if the only data released on Thursday was “The unemployment rate surged from 4.3% to 4.6%”?
Blockbuster Jobs Report Due On Thursday
June 29, 2026 The Fed is not hiking this year. There, I said it. I know markets disagree with this assessment, but I believe it. Warsh put on a show and the markets bought it. This call is going to look even more bold after Thursday’s jobs report, which is setting up to be red hot because of the World Cup and great weather
Fed Pencils in a Hike This Year
June 17, 2026 “We are unambiguously and unanimously committed to delivering price stability,” Kevin Warsh. “The Fed has missed the inflation target for five years and we are going to fix that.”
Our First Warsh Fed Meeting Wednesday
June 15, 2026 Other than our son actually finishing high school, the biggest shock of the week was how strong NFP came out.