The Pensford Letter
Weekly market commentary from JP Conklin on rates, the Fed, and what it all means for commercial real estate borrowers.
The Jay$ vs Warsh Showdown
September 08, 2026 Welp, that was a very good labor report. Good news for most Americans…maybe less so for those poor bastards in the real estate game. Thank goodness I’m not one of those…
WTF Was Bessent Thinking?
August 31, 2026 Warsh was as expected – hawkish. This guy cares about inflation as much as I care about the Eagles. But I also think he used the word “hike” 3x in his opening remarks very intentionally.
Inflation? What Inflation?
August 17, 2026 This feels like an oddly personal attack… And as I like to say, “Never take your interest rate advice from people that make outlandish claims just to get on CNBC.”
Jobs Report: The Good, the Bad, and Lots of the Ugly
August 10, 2026 Friday’s jobs report was pretty brutal. I expended considerable energy looking for something positive to write in this month’s the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Like the Cowboys come playoff time, it was much easier to find the Bad and the Ugly.
FOMC: Does Warsh Want to Change the Inflation Target?
July 29, 2026 Markets were the most uncertain about today’s FOMC meeting in 30 years. Three members dissented and voted for a hike: Logan, Hammock, and Kashkari. This was the first time in 10 years that there were three dissents in the same direction.
The Decision™
July 27, 2026 This is the most uncertain I’ve been about a Fed meeting in a long time. Fed signaling has been very intentional for 20 years and market probability of 60% had become the number to watch. Once odds exceeded 60%, the Fed would speak up before the meeting if they disagreed.
Monetarism for Dummies
July 20, 2026 We all know who said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” And that’s because we all have that know-it-all friend that’s insufferable at parties.
Big CPI Report Tuesday
July 13, 2026 Headline CPI is expected to fall from 4.2% to 3.8%, while the m/m reading is expected to fall from 0.5% to -0.1% (yes, negative 0.1%).
The Real Unemployment Rate Jumped to 4.6%
July 06, 2026 The only thing that matters from Thursday’s job report was that over 700k people gave up looking for work. Had those 700k people kept looking for work, the unemployment rate would have been 4.6%, not 4.2%. Why is no one talking about this?! Can you imagine the market reaction if the only data released on Thursday was “The unemployment rate surged from 4.3% to 4.6%”?