The Pensford Letter
Weekly market commentary from The Pensford Letter and The Rate Guy podcast on rates, the Fed, and what it all means for commercial real estate borrowers.
Big CPI Report Tuesday
July 13, 2026 Headline CPI is expected to fall from 4.2% to 3.8%, while the m/m reading is expected to fall from 0.5% to -0.1% (yes, negative 0.1%).
The Real Unemployment Rate Jumped to 4.6%
July 06, 2026 The only thing that matters from Thursday’s job report was that over 700k people gave up looking for work. Had those 700k people kept looking for work, the unemployment rate would have been 4.6%, not 4.2%. Why is no one talking about this?! Can you imagine the market reaction if the only data released on Thursday was “The unemployment rate surged from 4.3% to 4.6%”?
Blockbuster Jobs Report Due On Thursday
June 29, 2026 The Fed is not hiking this year. There, I said it. I know markets disagree with this assessment, but I believe it. Warsh put on a show and the markets bought it. This call is going to look even more bold after Thursday’s jobs report, which is setting up to be red hot because of the World Cup and great weather
Fed Pencils in a Hike This Year
June 17, 2026 “We are unambiguously and unanimously committed to delivering price stability,” Kevin Warsh. “The Fed has missed the inflation target for five years and we are going to fix that.”
Our First Warsh Fed Meeting Wednesday
June 15, 2026 Other than our son actually finishing high school, the biggest shock of the week was how strong NFP came out.
How Long Before Rates Come Back Down?
June 01, 2026 Well at least rates didn’t go up, right?
What Would Cause the Fed to Hike This Year?
May 26, 2026 I don’t want Iran to have nuclear weapons as much as anyone else, but I am old enough to remember the Cheney Doctrine justification.
What Brings Rates Back Down?
May 18, 2026 The odds of a single rate cut in the next 12 months are the same as FF hitting 5%. That is not a typo.
Headline Jobs Added 115k, But Lost 424k Full Time Positions
May 11, 2026 What an amazing report! Huge upside jobs gained and unemployment back down to 4.3%.