This is a bad matchup for the Birds.
In an alternate universe where the field wasn’t a POS, the Eagles beat the Chiefs two years ago. I didn’t sleep for two days after that L because I thought we were the better team. Will the Eagles be able to exact revenge this week?
Segue alert….
Markets as a Super Bowl 2025 matchup…
Last Week This Morning
Mahomes as Inflation
Everything starts here, right?
Like inflation, Mahomes has dominated the scene in recent memory. He might be having an off year by his standards, but he still finds a way to be in the headlines…and the Super Bowl.
And like Mahomes, I have inflation fatigue. Last week brought the most recent Core PCE print. While the headline came out at 2.8%, most economists would say it’s really more like 2.3%.
The monthly Core PCE was just 0.2%, annualizing at 2.4%. That’s a better real time measure of inflation than comparing to where we were a year ago. But if you insist on comparing against inflation a year ago…
…monthly Core PCE was 0.5% a year ago. That annualizes at 6% and is a big reason the Fed was so hawkish last spring. We never got remotely close to 6% last year and the Fed ended up cutting. Today’s number is far less worrisome than last year’s.
Some averages to consider:
The 3 month average is 2.3%
The 6 month average is 2.3%
The 9 month average is 2.3%
If we strip out the outlier print from a year ago, the average is…wait for it…2.3%. Even this state school kid can detect a pattern here.
“But 2.8% is above the Fed’s target!”
Yes, but…
- we’ve already established 2% was an arbitrary number from New Zealand in 1988
- 2.8% is way better than 6%
- the cost to drive inflation to 2% ASAP is lots of job losses
- 2.8% is the mathematical consequence of measuring against a rapidly falling inflation a year ago
- inflation expectations are still anchored
- the Fed doesn’t expect inflation to reach 2% until the end of 2026, why is everyone acting like it needs to be 2% today?
Two years ago, the Birds held Mahomes to 182 passing yards. They contained him enough to focus on other things. We still lost. Inflation is contained enough to focus on other things.
Unlike inflation, I am very concerned about Mahomes. He just cries wins. I never thought another QB would be mentioned in the same breath as Brady and yet here we are.
Mahomes stays relevant with the help of the refs, who protect him like a nuclear site. Speaking of which…
X Factor – Refs as Tariffs
The first wave of tariffs were announced over the weekend and inject considerable uncertainty into forecasts this year. How do you account for sweeping economic policies that can change with a single signature? How do you account for 3 roughing the passer penalties for sneezing on a guy?
I think tariffs are cognitively easy to grasp, which is why they are so easy to point to as a boost to inflation. But they don’t happen in a vacuum.
Let’s say I am selling my T-Swift T-shirt for $20 today. Tomorrow, I wake up and decide to change the price to $10,000. Is that inflation?
No. Inflation happens after money exchanges hands. Someone has to pay that price in order for there to be inflation.
When the price of something spikes, there is a drop in demand that partially offsets the cost increase. Or consumers shift to alternatives. Or the exporters agree to demands about border security to make the economic pain stop and the tariffs stop? Or a trade war breaks out and everyone suffers.
Can we agree it’s better for everyone if tariffs, like referees, are a non-story this year?
Barkley as Jobs
My favorite Penn State player of all time joins my beloved Eagles and immediately has a 2,000+ yard season?! Magical. While he was hoping for a soft landing in Philly, he had a no-landing. He just took off. Sounds like the labor market so far…
Barkley is jobs because they are both the most important thing to watch for the foreseeable future. The Chiefs are very good against the run and I just know they will be loading up the box.
We get the next jobs report on Friday, with a consensus NFP of 170k and UR of 4.1%. I would take that stat line from Barkley. That would mean the O-line is controlling the trenches and the clock. Keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands!
Consumer spending is incredibly strong, which is driving GDP. But it also hinges entirely on the job market.
As jobs go, so goes GDP.
As Barkley goes, so goes Hurts.
Speaking of which…
Jalen Hurts as GDP
Like GDP, Jalen’s stat line is the reflection of everything else. Barkley, O-line, AJ, Devonta, Goedert, time of possession, field position, turnovers, play calling, etc.
Jalen can’t win the game singlehandedly, but he can definitely lose it. You probably don’t remember this like I do, but the Eagles had a 10 point lead going into the half two year ago. And the only reason it wasn’t 17 was because Hurts fumbled after holding onto the ball too long, and it was returned for a TD. That totally changed the dynamic of the game.
The Chiefs are going to force Jalen to beat them. Can Barkley do enough so Jalen doesn't feel like he has to do it singlehandedly? I would take a 2.3% GDP from Jalen Hurts. Sure, 4% would be great, but I would take 2.3%..
That’s the GDP print we got last week. Not as gangbusters as some forecasters expected, but some of that can be chalked up to the nuance of accounting for inventories. But 2% is generally the Mendoza line, so 2.3% is still good.
And for the love of God, DON’T TURN THE BALL OVER JALEN!!! I will take a 2% GDP if it means negative GDP (cough cough turnovers) are taken off the table. Plant the foot and release – stop hanging onto the ball forever!
Drake as the Dallas Cowboys
Watching from home while their arch enemy performs in NOLA.
Jake Elliott as the 10 Year Treasury
The Eagles kicker has the potential to derail everything.
Until this year, he had been one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history. Dude had ice water in the veins.
He misses constantly now, both field goals and extra points. Last year, he was 7 of 8 on 50+ yard attempts. This year, he’s 1 for 8.
Once the Eagles cross mid field, here’s the script – blitz on 3rd down, force the Eagles into trying a 4th and long or kicking a long FG. Elliott used to nail those, but now he doesn’t and the opponent gets great field position.
“RUN A QUICK SLANT TO AJ!!” Even the guys from Wedding Crashers knew what a hot route was…but I digress…
I remember the good ole days when Jake was automatic and the T10 was under 4%. The T10 running up towards 5% crippled transactions and Jake might cripple Eagles momentum.
A good game for Jake Elliott means the T10 is going back to 4%.
Root for Jake.
JP/JMo as T-Swift/Kelce
Two of the purest innovators the world has ever seen, me and Taylor Swift.
Two of the biggest coat tail riders, JMo and Travis Kelce.
Me and Tay Tay move markets. We are economies unto ourselves. Combined, we have hundreds of millions of followers. We don’t need TikTok – TikTok needs us.
Maybe the best thing you can say about JMo and Travis Kelce is that they are the second best sibling in their own family.
I had Rate Guy friend bracelets made and shipped to Nova Care Complex a week ago. I hope Zach Baun wears his.
Only one of us is writing a break-up song in a week…which brings us to…
Prediction
Like I said at the beginning, this is a bad matchup for the Birds. A defense perfectly built to confuse our QB. A d-line constructed to contain our running game. A coaching staff that develops the best game plans, particularly with an extra week. Most importantly they have the best QB in the game…
Sounds eerily familiar to…2018…when the Eagles upset the heavily favored Pats. Brady. Belichick.
We already beat the GOAT, why not beat the baby GOAT, too? Someone call PETA, we got some GOAT killers.
The three peat gets put on ice. I’m doing snow angels in green/black/white confetti on Sunday. Hey Lombardi Trophy – “You belong with me!”
28-24
(and yes, this is a reverse reverse reverse jinx because I believe in that stuff)
In Saquon We Trust…
The Chiefs are the only team the Eagles could play that would have most of the country rooting for them. Win or lose, I won’t be in the mood for a newsletter next week.
Plus, we probably won’t be back from New Orleans until 4am…
GO BIRDS!