Dear Howie and Nick –
Let me begin my three part apology by first pointing out that my criticism was, perhaps, just the inspiration you needed? Sure, my spite site https://howiecantdraft.com/ hasn’t aged well. And my repeated calls for you to be fired last year following the epic collapse looks foolish. And sure, every Dallas Cowboys fan would trade places with me in a heartbeat. But would you have assembled one of the best teams ever if I hadn’t been pushing you? I guess we’ll never know…one thing I do know. I will never make a spite site of Kendrick Lamar.
Thank you to everyone that encouraged me to go to the Super Bowl…it was a once in a lifetime experience. I will probably regret saying this, but it was such a memorable experience that I genuinely wish everyone could experience it, even Niners fans. However high my expectations were, it blew them away. It was epic, and not just because of the outcome. Super Bowl 59 will be talked about for generations in the Conklin household. That’s not hyperbole.
Top 10 Highlights
10. The Eagles energy in the stadium…I don’t know how to describe it, but it was like we all knew the beatdown was coming. It felt inevitable even three hours before kickoff.
9. The Chiefs not getting to try one of those stupid ring around the rosie plays you know they practiced
8. T-Swift getting booed out of the stadium the one and only time they put her on the jumbotron. We booed Santa, you think we won’t boo a traitor in the biggest game of our lives?
7. Our section singing Happy Birthday to both Saquon Barkley and Cooper DeJean during warm ups
6. The Davonta Smith dagger right in front of us to go up 34-0 before the Chiefs had even crossed the 50
5. Backup RB Will Shipley, who played at our kids’ high school, saluting our Shipley jerseys
4. Zach Baun INT right in front of us
3. Cooper DeJean pick 6 right in front of us
2. Eagles cornerback Isiah Rodgers playing catch with both boys before the game…what?!?!?!
1. The black/green/white confetti…The Champs!
Pics or it didn’t happen.
Yes, that’s a green velour Eagles track suit. It paired well with my specially made Super Bowl sneaks. JMo: “Holy S#!£. Those burned a hole in my retina. A shoe only a true Eagles fan could sport.” I think that was a compliment.
Gimme that trophy Roger!
During warm ups, Eagles CB Isiah Rodgers pointed at our son and threw the ball to him. We were like, “Did that just happen?” Our boy threw it back, and then Rodgers threw to our other son. It was surreal. This is from Rodgers Instagram showing one of the boys tossing the ball back.
That look when you haven’t crossed midfield yet…this just warms my heart.
In the pre-Super Bowl newsletter, I said, “A good game for Jake Elliott means the T10 is going back to 4%. Root for Jake.” After being the least accurate kicker in the NFL this season, he was perfect in the Super Bowl and is now officially the most accurate kicker in NFL post-season history.
The Eagles made Mahomes cry, booed Swift, shut down the lesser Kelce sibling, and pushed the T10 down 20bps? You’re welcome America.
Last Week This Morning
59 Reasons the 10 Year Treasury Will Fall to 4%
59. Whether cutting government spending should be done with a chainsaw or a scalpel, less spending leads to less borrowing leads to lower yields
58. Treasury issuance is set to peak this quarter, but then drop in Q2
57. The last two times NFL running backs rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, the T10 averaged 1.34%
56. Trade war fears will weigh on economic activity and cause a flight to safety
55. Rates volatility is at three year lows, which feels impossible considering everything right now
54. The ECB is cutting rates
53. For the love of God, everything is relative. If the US looks good at 4.5%, describe what we look like at 5.5% with the rest of the world at 2%.
52. Trump will demand they go down
51. Howie Roseman was just named Treasury Secretary
50. Everyone at NMHC said this year is our year, so it has to be true
49. JMo thinks it’s going to 6%
48. All that credit card debt is actually being used to buy Treasurys
47. We’re adding a third of the jobs each month as we were two years ago, but we keep describing it as hot
46. The soft landing feels totally assured, which is exactly how it always happens before the rug gets yanked out from under us
45. M2 money supply is up but velocity is down
44. Oil prices are low and likely to fall lower with more deregulation
43. The global economy is slowing
42. If rates don’t drop, how can stocks justify 30x P/E ratios?
41. The last time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, Core PCE averaged 1.8% for the year
40. Who doesn’t love a good short squeeze?
39. Everyone thinks it’s going to 5%
38. Brady, “GOAT debate? Lol, good one.”
37. Fed minutes revealed some initial discussions around ending QT
36. Real rates are still positive, which will slow the economy
35. The Eagles set a record for most points scored in a post-season
34. Retail sales were shockingly weak
33. Tariffs won’t be as inflationary as the market has priced in
32. The Chairman hates the moniker Jay “Higher for Longer” Powell
31. Consumer confidence is down 10 points since the election
30. The stock market is definitely not overvalued
29. You can only be max long crypto for so long
28. I wonder if the laid off federal employees agree that this is the strongest labor market in history?
27. The bird flu is transitory, but the Eagles are forever
26. The Treasury department pays less interest if rates are lower, right?
25. 2022 called, “Wait, you think you have an inflation problem?”
24. If China can convince people that it’s GDP is legit, TikTok isn’t spying on Americans, and DeepSeek isn’t a government run AI enterprise…I guess anything’s possible
23. Taylor’s Breakup Era tour won’t kick off until January 2026, so all that money can flow into Treasurys this year
22. Larry Summers used his one good call on Fed Funds hitting 5%
21. The Eagles are obviously the real America’s Team now
20. Our new AI overlords love Treasurys
19. Trump Merch store launches “Make Bonds Great Again” hats
18. Shelter component will weigh on inflation all year
17. It only took 4 weeks for the Trump reality to sink in…trade wars aren’t good for the economy
16. DOGE has access to all Treasury info and is simply changing the first digit on Treasury yields
15. If you’re under 35, you have no memory of the Dallas Cowboys winning a Super Bowl. I’m not sure that will push yields lower, but I thought it was important to point out. Good Luka trade, though…
14. The healthcare component of CPI, which feeds directly into Core PCE, was negative
13. Germany is in a recession
12. Bond vigilantes are mostly Gen Z’ers and only work 3 days a week
11. Buffet is max long cash…that can’t be a good sign for the economy
10. All that money that poured into ESG has to go somewhere
9. An inverted yield curve has never been wrong before
8. Everyone’s a tough guy until Americans start losing jobs
7. We’re about to find out how bogus that JOLTS report is
6. The Kansas City Fed reports a plunge in BBQ sales and a corresponding surge in Treasury buying
5. Mahomes jersey sales prices fall off a cliff, helping to offset spiking DeJean jersey prices
4. Private credit, drunk on headlines and hubris, unleashes a diss track on Kendrick. Big mistake – after seeing what he did to Drake, everyone panics and the resulting flight to safety drives yields down.
3. The Taylor Rule isn’t about cutting rates, it’s about cutting mopey Travis Kelce
2. Musk tweets “T10 420” and sets a new ceiling
1. “I know what the f*ck I’m doing!” – Nick Sirianni JP predicting a 4% T10
The Week Ahead
Huge week ahead, headlined by Core PCE. Also, the Eagles have the youngest roster ever for a Super Bowl champion. We aren’t going anywhere.
After Taylor dumps Travis, I know she’ll be an Eagles fan again. Her next tour…The Dynasty Era.
Come home Taylor, there’s still room on the bandwagon for you.
This perhaps best sums up the Superdome atmosphere.
Super Bowl 59 Champs! GO BIRDS!
(I promise to tone it down a little starting next week)